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WR Consistency

Most fantasy football analysis focuses on total fantasy points scored per season. While this is an important number for year-over-year evaluation, it does not give any insight into a player’s weekly fantasy output.

There are a myriad of details that can affect a players yearly output. Injuries, coaching changes, bad play from other players, injuries to other players and so on. In order to have a better perspective into a player’s historical performance, I focused on the past three seasons. This will help to create a level playing field for the purpose of the players on this list. Some players will have more games to work with and some will not due to injuries or because of years in the league.

With that in mind we start with last year’s stats and look at fantasy points per game. I also list that player’s average fantasy points per game over the past three seasons to show their reliability. I used basic scoring, non-PPR as the scoring system. I list the number of games played with the percentage of total possible starts over the past three seasons to show their dependability

 

 

‘08 Pts

 3-Yr Avg.

# and % of

Player

Team

Per Gm

Pts Per Gm

Gms Played

Anquan Boldin

ARI

14.15

11.6

40/48 – 83%

Larry Fitzgerald

ARI

13.46

12.3

44/48 – 92%

Andre Johnson

HOU

12.84

12.2

42/48 – 88%

Calvin Johnson

DET

12.81

9.7

31/32 – 97%

Steve Smith

CAR

12.69

11.3

43/48 – 90%

Greg Jennings

GB

11.45

10

43/48 – 90%

Roddy White

ATL

11.26

8.1

48/48 – 100%

Brandon Marshall

DEN

10.83

8.2

46/48 – 96%

Antonio Bryant

TB

10.43

8.5

30/32 – 94%

Randy Moss

NE

10.42

11.3

45/48 – 94%

Terrell Owens

DAL

10.32

12.5

47/48 – 98%

Marques Colston

NO

9.63

10.7

41/48 – 85%

Lance Moore

NO

9.55

6.1

36/48 – 75%

Vincent Jackson

SD

9.48

6.5

48/48 – 100%

Reggie Wayne

IND

9.4

11.4

48/48 – 100%

Hines Ward

PIT

9.16

9.2

43/48 – 90%

Dwayne Bowe

KC

9.01

8.6

32/32 – 100%

Santana Moss

WAS

8.77

8

44/48 – 92%

Bernard Berrian

MIN

8.65

8

47/48 – 98%

Kevin Walter

HOU

8.61

7.6

48/48 – 100%

Eddie Royal

DEN

8.53

 

15/16 – 94%

Justin Gage

TEN

8.4

6.9

36/48 – 75%

Wes Welker

NE

8.4

7.8

48/48 – 100%

Derrick Mason

BAL

8.35

7.5

48/48 – 100%

Donald Driver

GB

8.2

8.9

47/48 – 98%

Deion Branch

SEA

8.2

7.8

36/48 – 75%

Laveranues Coles

NYJ

7.93

8.7

43/48 – 90%

Isaac Bruce

SF

7.83

7.6

46/48 – 96%

Mushin

Muhammed

CAR

7.64

6.5

48/48 – 100%

TJ Houshmandzadeh

CIN

7.62

10.3

45/48 – 94%

Lee Evans

BUF

7.48

8.6

48/48 – 100%

Santonio Holmes

PIT

7.47

8.1

44/48 – 92%

Steve Breaston

ARI

7.39

 

18/32 – 56%

Matt Jones

JAC

7.25

6.1

38/48 – 79%

Jerricho Cotchery

NYJ

7.23

7.9

47/48 – 98%

Plaxico Burress

NYG

6.9

9.5

41/48 – 85%

Greg Camarillo

MIA

6.66

4.2

30/48 – 63%

Braylon Edwards

CLE

6.6

9.5

48/48 – 100%

DeSean Jackson

PHI

6.45

 

16/16 – 100%

Marvin Harrison

IND

5.85

8.3

36/48 – 75%

Torry Holt

STL

6.1

9.1

48/48 – 100%

Devery Henderson

NO

6.1

5.9

45/48 – 94%

Chad

Ocho Cinco

CIN

6

9.7

45/48 – 94%

Michael Jenkins

ATL

5.98

5.5

47/48 – 98%

Donnie Avery

STL

5.76

 

15/16 – 94%

Ted Ginn Jr

MIA

5.68

4.6

32/32 – 100%

Kevin Curtis

PHI

5.7

6.4

41/48 – 85%

Anthony Gonzalez

IND

5.7

5.8

29/32 – 91%

Devin Hester

CHI

5.63

2.6

31/32 – 97%

Observations: At the top of the list is Anquan Boldin. He averaged more points per game played last year and helped win a lot of games for fantasy owners. But he also missed four games, or 25 percent, of the season and just as likely cost owners a few losses and maybe a championship. He is reliable because of the points he averages per game over the past three seasons, but he has also missed eight games over the past two seasons. He is an example of a player that is not as dependable as some other players because of the risk for him to miss time and he should be ranked accordingly. Near the bottom of the list is Greg Camarillo who has been injured twice in the past two seasons. He has missed more time than anyone else on the list over the three-year period.

The two different lists show last year’s upward or downward trend versus a three-year average. Looking at this list, the Top 10 players averaged more than 10 points per game. It would be safe to determine that scoring more than 10 points a game is above average. It would also be safe to determine that scoring 0-4 points a game is below average and scoring 5-9 points is average. However, it still does not give much insight into a week-to-week performance. This next list takes a more in-depth look at the numbers. Going over the past three seasons I look at the percentage of times a player has scored above average, average and below average. This will give insight into a player’s weekly scoring consistency and shed light on players who might have inflated numbers due to a couple of blowout performances, yet consistently perform below average.

Player

Team

  10+ Pts

   5-9 Pts

   0-4 Pts

Terrell Owens

DAL

63.83

10.64

25.53

Andre Johnson

HOU

61.9

19.05

19.05

Larry Fitzgerald

ARI

56.82

40.09

2.27

Calvin Johnson

DET

54.84

22.58

22.58

Marques Colston

NO

53.66

14.63

31.7

Steve Smith

CAR

53.49

27.91

18.6

Greg Jennings

GB

51.16

23.26

30.43

Reggie Wayne

IND

50

35.42

14.58

Randy Moss

NE

46.67

20

33.33

Anquan Boldin

ARI

45

35

20

TJ Houshmandzadeh

CIN

44.44

31.11

24.44

Braylon Edwards

CLE

43.8

22.92

33.33

Brandon Marshall

DEN

41.94

39.13

30.43

Dwayne Bowe

KC

40.63

37.5

21.88

Eddie Royal

DEN

40

26.67

33.33

Hines Ward

PIT

39.53

30.23

30.23

Marvin Harrison

IND

38.89

22.22

38.89

Bernard Berrian

MIN

38.3

21.28

40.43

Lee Evans

BUF

37.5

25

37.5

Lance Moore

NO

37.5

18.75

43.75

Jerricho Cotchery

NYJ

36.17

29.79

34.04

Kevin Walter

HOU

35.48

21.88

43.75

Roddy White

ATL

35.42

31.25

33.33

Steve Breaston

ARI

33.33

33.33

33.33

Deion Branch

SEA

33.33

22.22

42.42

Torry Holt

STL

33.33

45.83

20.83

Laveranues Coles

NYJ

32.56

32.56

34.88

Donald Driver

GB

31.91

42.55

25.53

DeSean Jackson

PHI

31.25

31.25

37.5

Wes Welker

NE

31.25

37.5

33.33

Chad Ocho Cinco

CIN

31.11

40

28.89

Isaac Bruce

SF

30.43

36.96

32.61

Joey Galloway

TB

30

22.5

47.5

Derrick Mason

BAL

29.17

31.25

39.58

Mushin Muhammed

CAR

29.17

27.08

43.75

Roy Williams

DAL

28.95

23.68

47.37

Santonio Holmes

PIT

27.27

38.64

34.09

Santana Moss

WAS

27.27

29.55

43.18

Donnie Avery

STL

26.67

26.67

46.67

Justin Gage

TEN

25

21.43

53.57

Nate Burleson

SEA

24.24

15.15

60.6

Chris Henry

CIN

24.24

18.18

57.58

Vincent Jackson

SD

22.92

33.33

43.75

Bobby Engram

SEA

22.22

41.67

36.11

Chris Chambers

SD

21.74

36.96

41.3

Mark Clayton

BAL

20.83

10.41

68.75

Anthony Gonzalez

IND

20.69

10.34

68.97

Kevin Curtis

PHI

19.51

34.15

46.34

Patrick Crayton

DAL

19.15

27.66

53.19

Devery Henderson

NO

17.78

28.88

53.33

Michael Jenkins

ATL

17.02

34.04

51.06

Nate Washington

PIT

16.67

20.83

62.5

Ted Ginn Jr

MIA

15.63

21.88

62.5

Observations: At the top of the list is Terrell Owens. He has averaged 10+ points per game more times than anyone else on the list. But when you look at the other categories and compare his averages to Larry Fitzgerald, you can see that Fitzgerald is clearly more consistent at producing better overall numbers over the course of a season. Near the bottom of the list are Mark Clayton and Anthony Gonzalez, who both have similar numbers. However, there are a few differences between the two. First off, Gonzalez only has 29 games played versus Clayton’s 48 games played. Next, Clayton was the Ravens’ No. 2 receiver for the three seasons used in this list. Gonzalez was the Colts’ No. 3 receiver and more like the fourth target on the team. He only has the two seasons including his rookie year to use for the list. With Marvin Harrison gone, Gonzalez moves into the No. 2 spot. His targets and numbers will surely increase and so will his consistency. Clayton, on the other hand, will be very limited to improve upon his numbers. He remains more likely to score below-average numbers than above average. He’ll have inflated numbers, due to a couple of blowout games at the end of the season.

Upon compiling this list the argument could be made that some player’s numbers may be deflated due to some seasons being irrelevant. With that in mind, I back out the seasons in which a player had no fantasy relevancy. For example, a rookie season is irrelevant if a player was buried on a depth chart. Basically, if a player would not have been on a fantasy roster, it is excluded. Then I compared the above-average and average games against below-average games to conclude with an overall mean rating. I also list the percentage of times a player has scored more than 15 points, believing that this would be an elite score and assist in showing a player’s potential upside.

   Mean

Player

Team

  Rating

   15+ Pts

Larry Fitzgerald

ARI

94.64

31.82

Reggie Wayne

IND

70.84

27.08

Steve Smith

CAR

62.8

32.56

Andre Johnson

HOU

61.9

28.57

Anquan Boldin

ARI

60

22.5

Torry Holt

JAC

58.33

14.58

Randy Moss

NE

56.25

35.56

Dwayne Bowe

KC

56.25

9.38

Calvin Johnson

DET

54.84

16.13

TJ Houshmanzadeh

SEA

51.11

26.67

Wes Welker

NE

51.05

4.17

Brandon Marshall

DEN

50.64

19.35

Terrell Owens

BUF

48.94

31.91

Donald Driver

GB

48.93

17.02

Greg Jennings

GB

43.99

23.26

Chad Ocho Cinco

CIN

42.22

13.33

Hines Ward

PIT

39.53

13.95

Marques Colston

NO

36.59

26.83

Isaac Bruce

SF

34.78

10.87

Braylon Edwards

CLE

33.39

16.67

Eddie Royal

DEN

33.34

13.33

Roddy White

ATL

33.34

18.75

Steve Breaston

ARI

33.33

13.33

Jerricho Cotchery

NYJ

31.92

10.64

Santonio Holmes

PIT

31.82

11.36

Laveranues Coles

NYJ

30.24

18.6

Bobby Engram

KC

27.78

2.78

Lee Evans

BUF

25

16.67

Vincent Jackson

SD

25

8.33

DeSean Jackson

PHI

25

6.25

Marvin Harrison

IND

22.22

16.67

Derrick Mason

BAL

20.84

8.33

Bernard Berrian

MIN

19.15

14.89

Chris Chambers

SD

17.4

2.17

Santana Moss

WAS

13.64

15.91

Kevin Walter

HOU

13.61

18.75

Deion Branch

SEA

13.13

15.15

Lance Moore

NO

12.5

25

Mushin Muhammed

CAR

12.5

4.17

Kevin Curtis

PHI

7.32

46.34

Donnie Avery

STL

6.67

6.67

Roy Williams

DAL

5.26

18.42

Joey Galloway

NE

5

22.5

Michael Jenkins

ATL

0

4.25

Patrick Crayton

DAL

-6.38

6.38

Devery Henderson

NO

-6.67

11.11

Justin Gage

TEN

-7.14

10.71

Chris Henry

CIN

-15.16

6.06

Nate Burleson

SEA

-21.21

3.03

Ted Ginn Jr

MIA

-24.99

3.13

Nate Washington

TEN

-25

6.25

Mark Clayton

BAL

-37.51

10.42

Anthony Gonzalez

IND

-37.94

10.34

Observations: Near the top of the list is Torry Holt. He has been a very consistent fantasy receiver over the past three seasons. However, he is on the downside of his career and should be seen as having limited upside. Near the bottom of the list is Ted Ginn, Jr. He has not been consistent and has limited upside. He has been more likely to score below average than above average and average combined. He could improve this year, but fantasy owners expecting a breakout might want to reconsider.

Thanks for reading and these lists should help you in your research and rankings to find those consistent or unpredictable players.

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