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WR Production & Efficiency


In the first series of this article I broke down the passing distribution for each team. First I broke down team positions and their target percentages that showed what is obvious to most – which teams targeted the WR position the most down to the least. Second, I broke down teams WR 1-4, TE 1 and RB 1. Again that showed what is obvious to most, such as: some teams like

Jacksonville


spread the ball around pretty evenly. The WR 1 received 16% of the team’s passing attempts, as did the WR2. The WR 3 received 13% and WR 4 received 11%, while TE 1 and RB 1 each received 12% of the team’s passing attempts. While that may be a good or better than average % for the RB position, it hurts the WR position. In fact, one could argue based off those numbers that the WR 3 could have been a better value pick over WR 1 and 2 in relation to their average draft position. The flip side of this is that the Jacksonville WR 1 with 16% of the team’s passing attempts was only half of

Denver’s WR 1 with 33% of the team’s passing attempts. Knowing which teams lean towards targeting certain positions more, less or evenly can help in determining value and adjusting accordingly.

 

Lastly I listed the individual players and their average targets per game. In order for a wide receiver to be successful in terms of fantasy football, one could argue that targets or opportunities are the biggest factor. Over the last three years, the top number of wide receiver targets has been consistent. In 07 there were nine with 150 + targets, in 06 there were nine with 150 + targets and in 05 there were eight with 150 + targets. From 100–150 targets the breakdown was consistent as well. In 07 there were 26, in 06 there were 29 and in 05 there were 28. If we go a little further and look at targets from 80–100 there was a 50% increase last year. Up to 24 compared to 12 in 06 and 14 in 05. Knowing that players will have increases and decreases in targets year in and year out is a reason to look at player production in relation to the targets they receive.

 

This first list picks up where the average targets per game list left off. It shows how productive an individual was at converting targets into receptions, or what I refer to as their reception conversion percentage. There are many things that can affect this stat: QB play or accuracy, route running, speed, hands, play calling, personnel, which WR position they line up at, etc. The myriad of issues a player will face on any given team can boil down to this one stat. I have also included their average receptions per game as well.

 

 

 

Rcpt

Avg Rcpts

Player

Team

Conv %

Per Gm

W Welker

NE

77%

7

A Boldin

ARI

72%

5.9

J Gaffney

NE

72%

2.8

I Hilliard

TB

71%

4.1

A Gonzalez

IND

71%

3.1

A Johnson

HOU

70%

6.7

B Engram

SEA

70%

5.9

M Colston

NO

68%

6.1

DJ Hackett

SEA

68%

5.3

M Furrey

DET

68%

3.8

R

Wayne

IND

67%

6.5

D Driver

GB

67%

5.5

TJ Houshmandzadeh

CIN

66%

7

A Randle El

WAS

66%

3.4

J Cotchery

NYJ

65%

5.5

J Gage

TEN

65%

3.4

B Wade

MIN

65%

3.4

G

Jennings

GB

63%

4

D Mason

BAL

63%

6.4

R Williams

JAX

63%

2.5

R Moss

NE

62%

6.1

T Holt

STL

62%

5.8

S McDonald

DET

62%

4.9

L Coles

NYJ

62%

5

P Crayton

DAL

62%

3.3

D Stallworth

NE

62%

2.9

J Jurevicius

CLE

62%

3.1

M Jenkins

ATL

62%

3.5

R White

ATL

61%

5.2

S Holmes

PIT

61%

4

R Willams

DET

61%

5.3

D Patten

NO

61%

3.6

K Walter

HOU

61%

4.1

E Wilford

JAX

61%

2.8

L Fitzgerald

ARI

60%

6.7

B Marshall

DEN

60%

6.4

H Ward

PIT

60%

5.5

D Northcutt

JAX

60%

2.9

R Williams

TEN

59%

3.7

J Jones

GB

59%

3.1

J Reed

BUF

59%

3.4

C Johnson

CIN

58%

5.8

S Smith

CAR

58%

5

J

Galloway

TB

58%

4.9

D Branch

SEA

58%

4.5

S Rice

MIN

58%

2.6

J Urban

ARI

58%

2.2

T Owens

DAL

57%

5.4

A Toomer

NYG

57%

3.7

R Curry

OAK

57%

3.4

B Stokley

DEN

56%

3.1

K Curtis

PHI

55%

4.8

B Berrian

CHI

55%

4.4

R Brown

PHI

55%

3.8

C Henry

CIN

55%

2.6

I Bruce

STL

54%

3.9

M Clayton

BAL

54%

5

S Moss

WAS

53%

4.4

N Washington

PIT

53%

1.9

B Edwards

CLE

52%

5

N Burleson

SEA

52%

3.1

A

Davis

HOU

52%

2.4

J

Walker

DEN

52%

3.7

B Johnson

ARI

52%

2.8

R

Ferguson

MIN

52%

2.5

C Chambers

MIA/SD

51%

4.1

C Johnson

DET

51%

3.2

V

Jackson

SD

51%

2.6

P Burress

NYG

50%

4.4

D Bowe

KC

50%

4.4

L Evans

BUF

49%

3.4

M Muhammad

CHI

49%

2.5

L Robinson

ATL

49%

2.5

A

Battle

SF

48%

3.1

M Booker

MIA

48%

3.3

D Carter

CAR

48%

2.3

D Darling

BAL

46%

1.6

D

Jackson

SF

44%

3.1

J Porter

OAK

43%

3.1

D Williams

BAL

43%

2.2

 

— page —

 

This second list looks at the production of individual wide receivers by average receiving yards per game played last season. When it comes to fantasy value, wide receivers generally tend to be more consistent with their yardage totals than their scoring output. But I have included the percentage of games where the individual player went over 100 yards, the percentage of games played with a touchdown reception and how many multi-touchdown games they had on the season.

 

 

 

Avg Yds

100 +

TD Rcpt%

Multiple

Players

Team

Per Gm

Yd Gm

Gm Plyd

TD Gms

A Johnson

HOU

94.5

44%

78%

1

R

Wayne

IND

94.3

38%

56%

1

L Fitzgerald

ARI

94.1

27%

47%

3

R Moss

NE

93.3

56%

81%

8

T Owens

DAL

90.3

40%

67%

3

C Johnson

CIN

90

31%

25%

3

B Marshall

DEN

82.8

25%

38%

1

B Edwards

CLE

80.5

25%

69%

4

J Cotchery

NYJ

75.2

27%

13%

 

M Colston

NO

75.1

25%

44%

3

R White

ATL

75.1

31%

38%

 

T Holt

STL

74.3

19%

44%

 

W Welker

NE

73.4

25%

38%

2

S Holmes

PIT

72.4

23%

46%

2

B Engram

SEA

71.6

13%

38%

 

TJ Houshmandzadeh

CIN

71.4

19%

63%

2

A Boldin

ARI

71

17%

50%

3

G

Jennings

GB

70.7

15%

77%

2

D Driver

GB

69.8

13%

13%

 

R Williams

DET

69.6

17%

33%

1

K Curtis

PHI

69.3

19%

19%

1

D Mason

BAL

67.9

 

31%

 

J

Galloway

TB

67.6

20%

33%

1

S Smith

CAR

66.8

27%

33%

1

P Burress

NYG

64

19%

56%

2

DJ Hackett

SEA

64

33%

50%

 

D Bowe

KC

62.1

13%

31%

 

C Chambers

MIA/SD

60.6

13%

25%

 

D Branch

SEA

60

18%

36%

 

B Berrian

CHI

59.2

6%

31%

 

S McDonald

DET

58.9

 

38%

 

L Coles

NYJ

58.7

9%

36%

2

S Moss

WAS

57.7

14%

21%

 

H Ward

PIT

56.6

 

38%

2

L Evans

BUF

53

13%

25%

1

D Patten

NO

52.8

20%

20%

 

I Bruce

STL

52.3

7%

29%

 

C Johnson

DET

50.4

7%

27%

 

K Walter

HOU

50

6%

25%

 

B Stokley

DEN

48.8

 

46%

 

R Brown

PHI

48.7

6%

19%

 

A Randle El

WAS

48.5

13%

7%

 

I Hilliard

TB

48.1

7%

7%

 

A Gonzalez

IND

48

8%

17%

 

R Williams

TEN

47.9

7%

20%

1

A Toomer

NYG

47.5

 

19%

 

J Gage

TEN

46.8

6%

6%

 

P Crayton

DAL

46.4

7%

33%

2

J Jones

GB

45

7%

13%

 

R Curry

OAK

44.8

6%

31%

 

J Porter

OAK

44

 

31%

1

D Stallworth

NE

43.5

6%

19%

 

N Burleson

SEA

43.3

6%

50%

1

C Henry

CIN

42.8

 

25%

 

R Williams

JAX

41.9

7%

67%

 

A

Davis

HOU

41.6

7%

21%

 

M Furrey

DET

41.5

 

6%

 

J

Walker

DEN

41

29%

 

 

B Wade

MIN

40.8

 

13%

1

D Northcutt

JAX

40

 

33%

 

V

Jackson

SD

38.9

 

19%

 

J Reed

BUF

38.5

 

 

 

J Jurevicius

CLE

38.3

 

13%

1

A

Battle

SF

37.5

 

31%

 

M Booker

MIA

37

 

7%

 

M Muhammad

CHI

35.6

 

19%

 

M Jenkins

ATL

35.4

 

20%

1

J Gaffney

NE

34.5

8%

38%

 

D

Jackson

SF

33.1

 

13%

 

M Clayton

BAL

33.1

6%

 

 

S Rice

MIN

33

 

33%

 

J Urban

ARI

32.9

10%

20%

 

B Johnson

ARI

32.8

 

13%

 

E Wilford

JAX

32.3

 

13%

1

D Williams

BAL

32.2

 

 

 

D Carter

CAR

30.5

6%

19%

1

N Washington

PIT

30

 

20%

2

R

Ferguson

MIN

30

 

8%

 

D Darling

BAL

29.6

9%

27%

 

L Robinson

ATL

29.1

7%

7%

 


 

— page —

 


This third list takes a look at an individual’s production per reception in relation to a basic scoring system. It breaks down all these lists into one formidable chart to show which players were the most productive at producing fantasy points per reception. One could make an argument that it might be better served to break this down by targets rather than receptions. The reason I chose to break this down by receptions is that if a player had a lot of targets but a poor reception conversion percentage, they would be listed higher due to the number of targets rather than their actual production and the first list with the reception conversion percentage shows how effective a player was at taking advantage of their opportunities to begin with.

 

 

 

Fantasy

Player

Team

Pts Pr Rcpt

R Williams

JAX

3.21

G

Jennings

GB

3.09

R Moss

NE

2.93

B Edwards

CLE

2.8

D Darling

BAL

2.78

T Owens

DAL

2.78

S Holmes

PIT

2.73

N Washington

PIT

2.59

P Burress

NYG

2.49

N Burleson

SEA

2.46

J Porter

OAK

2.41

J

Galloway

TB

2.4

B Stokley

DEN

2.33

A

Davis

HOU

2.3

M Jones

JAX

2.3

P Crayton

DAL

2.22

A Johnson

HOU

2.22

C Henry

CIN

2.19

L Evans

BUF

2.07

J Gaffney

NE

2.06

C Johnson

CIN

2.06

C Johnson

DET

2.06

A Gonzalez

IND

2.03

S Rice

MIN

2.03

R

Wayne

IND

2.03

J Urban

ARI

2

L Fitzgerald

ARI

1.99

A Boldin

ARI

1.96

V

Jackson

SD

1.95

D Carter

CAR

1.92

K Curtis

PHI

1.91

D Northcutt

JAX

1.91

M Colston

NO

1.9

M Muhammad

CHI

1.88

D Stallworth

NE

1.89

R White

ATL

1.88

D Bowe

KC

1.84

D Branch

SEA

1.84

C Chambers

 

1.83

L Coles

NYJ

1.82

A

Battle

SF

1.8

D Patten

NO

1.8

R Williams

DET

1.79

B Berrian

CHI

1.77

I Bruce

STL

1.76

DJ Hackett

SEA

1.75

R Curry

OAK

1.73

R Williams

TEN

1.73

T Holt

STL

1.72

B Marshall

DEN

1.71

J Jones

GB

1.68

D Bennett

STL

1.67

R Brown

PHI

1.67

TJ Houshmandzadeh

CIN

1.66

S McDonald

DET

1.65

S Smith

CAR

1.63

S Moss

WAS

1.61

B Engram

SEA

1.6

K Walter

HOU

1.6

H Ward

PIT

1.6

J Gage

TEN

1.58

J Jurevicius

CLE

1.58

T Ginn Jr

MIA

1.59

A Toomer

NYG

1.59

B Wade

MIN

1.54

A Randle El

WAS

1.53

E Wilford

JAX

1.53

J Cotchery

NYJ

1.51

W Welker

NE

1.47

D

Jackson

SF

1.46

M Jenkins

ATL

1.45

D Williams

BAL

1.45

B Johnson

ARI

1.42

D Driver

GB

1.41

R

Ferguson

MIN

1.41

B Smith

NYJ

1.38

D Mason

BAL

1.34

L Robinson

ATL

1.32

I Hilliard

TB

1.26

M Booker

MIA

1.22

M Furrey

DET

1.18

J Reed

BUF

1.12

M Clayton

BAL

1.1


— page —

 


So looking at this list, the first thing you see is

Reggie Williams
listed in the first slot. He may have produced the most fantasy points per reception but his opportunities were limited and everyone knows that

Randy Moss
was the top scoring wide receiver last year. While this list shows who was the most productive per reception, the biggest factor becomes targets as well as reception conversion percentage. By taking the three most important factors – the fantasy points per reception list, the average targets per game list and reception conversion list – and giving each of them a weight value, we can come up with one list that puts the three most important factors into one measurement. Remember that this list is based off last year and is not a projection for this year. It is more of a tool for quick estimates when making determinations based on the potential increase or decrease a player may receive in targets this year and comparing a player’s potential value compared to their average draft position.

 

Player

Team

Weight

R Moss

NE

9.21

A Johnson

HOU

8.16

L Fitzgerald

ARI

8.08

TJ Houshmandzadeh

CIN

8.03

R

Wayne

IND

7.97

W Welker

NE

7.88

T Owens

DAL

7.82

B Marshall

DEN

7.74

M Colston

NO

7.71

A Boldin

ARI

7.65

C Johnson

CIN

7.64

B Edwards

CLE

7.61

D Mason

BAL

7.52

T Holt

STL

7.39

B Engram

SEA

7.37

S Smith

CAR

7.36

G

Jennings

GB

7.24

DJ Hackett

SEA

7.18

H Ward

PIT

7.17

R White

ATL

7.17

J Cotchery

NYJ

7.1

D Driver

GB

7.04

P Burress

NYG

7.01

L Coles

NYJ

6.99

S Holmes

PIT

6.97

K Curtis

PHI

6.91

S McDonald

DET

6.86

D Branch

SEA

6.7

D Bowe

KC

6.66

J

Galloway

TB

6.63

B Berrian

CHI

6.61

C Chambers

MIA/SD

6.49

S Moss

WAS

6.49

R Williams

JAX

6.48

J Urban

ARI

6.38

I Hilliard

TB

6.37

P Crayton

DAL

6.32

K Walter

HOU

6.32

I Bruce

STL

6.28

A Gonzalez

IND

6.28

N Burleson

SEA

6.2

M Jenkins

ATL

6.19

J Gaffney

NE

6.17

D Patten

NO

6.16

R Williams

TEN

6.16

R Brown

PHI

6.15

L Evans

BUF

6.13

B Stokley

DEN

6.09

M Furrey

DET

6.07

A Toomer

NYG

6.04

A Randle El

WAS

6.01

C Johnson

DET

6

R Curry

OAK

5.99

B Wade

MIN

5.96

J Porter

OAK

5.84

D Stallworth

NE

5.84

D Northcutt

JAX

5.83

J Jones

GB

5.82

J Jurevicius

CLE

5.8

A

Battle

SF

5.76

C Henry

CIN

5.71

S Rice

MIN

5.66

J Reed

BUF

5.65

J Gage

TEN

5.6

M Booker

MIA

5.58

E Wilford

JAX

5.58

A

Davis

HOU

5.56

D

Jackson

SF

5.5

V

Jackson

SD

5.47

N Washington

PIT

5.35

M Muhammad

CHI

5.33

M Jones

JAX

5.22

B Johnson

ARI

5.2

D Carter

CAR

5.16

R

Ferguson

MIN

5.1

D Bennett

STL

5.09

L Robinson

ATL

5.07

T Ginn Jr

MIA

5

D Darling

BAL

4.93

D Williams

BAL

4.84

B Smith

NYJ

4.77

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