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In the first series of this article I broke down the passing distribution for each team. First I broke down team positions and their target percentages that showed what is obvious to most – which teams targeted the WR position the most down to the least. Second, I broke down teams WR 1-4, TE 1 and RB 1. Again that showed what is obvious to most, such as: some teams like
spread the ball around pretty evenly. The WR 1 received 16% of the team’s passing attempts, as did the WR2. The WR 3 received 13% and WR 4 received 11%, while TE 1 and RB 1 each received 12% of the team’s passing attempts. While that may be a good or better than average % for the RB position, it hurts the WR position. In fact, one could argue based off those numbers that the WR 3 could have been a better value pick over WR 1 and 2 in relation to their average draft position. The flip side of this is that the Jacksonville WR 1 with 16% of the team’s passing attempts was only half of
Lastly I listed the individual players and their average targets per game. In order for a wide receiver to be successful in terms of fantasy football, one could argue that targets or opportunities are the biggest factor. Over the last three years, the top number of wide receiver targets has been consistent. In 07 there were nine with 150 + targets, in 06 there were nine with 150 + targets and in 05 there were eight with 150 + targets. From 100–150 targets the breakdown was consistent as well. In 07 there were 26, in 06 there were 29 and in 05 there were 28. If we go a little further and look at targets from 80–100 there was a 50% increase last year. Up to 24 compared to 12 in 06 and 14 in 05. Knowing that players will have increases and decreases in targets year in and year out is a reason to look at player production in relation to the targets they receive.
This first list picks up where the average targets per game list left off. It shows how productive an individual was at converting targets into receptions, or what I refer to as their reception conversion percentage. There are many things that can affect this stat: QB play or accuracy, route running, speed, hands, play calling, personnel, which WR position they line up at, etc. The myriad of issues a player will face on any given team can boil down to this one stat. I have also included their average receptions per game as well.
|
|
|
Rcpt
|
Avg Rcpts
|
|
Player
|
Team
|
Conv %
|
Per Gm
|
|
W Welker
|
NE
|
77%
|
7
|
|
A Boldin
|
ARI
|
72%
|
5.9
|
|
J Gaffney
|
NE
|
72%
|
2.8
|
|
I Hilliard
|
TB
|
71%
|
4.1
|
|
A Gonzalez
|
IND
|
71%
|
3.1
|
|
A Johnson
|
HOU
|
70%
|
6.7
|
|
B Engram
|
SEA
|
70%
|
5.9
|
|
M Colston
|
NO
|
68%
|
6.1
|
|
DJ Hackett
|
SEA
|
68%
|
5.3
|
|
M Furrey
|
DET
|
68%
|
3.8
|
|
R
|
IND
|
67%
|
6.5
|
|
D Driver
|
GB
|
67%
|
5.5
|
|
TJ Houshmandzadeh
|
CIN
|
66%
|
7
|
|
A Randle El
|
WAS
|
66%
|
3.4
|
|
J Cotchery
|
NYJ
|
65%
|
5.5
|
|
J Gage
|
TEN
|
65%
|
3.4
|
|
B Wade
|
MIN
|
65%
|
3.4
|
|
G
|
GB
|
63%
|
4
|
|
D Mason
|
BAL
|
63%
|
6.4
|
|
R Williams
|
JAX
|
63%
|
2.5
|
|
R Moss
|
NE
|
62%
|
6.1
|
|
T Holt
|
STL
|
62%
|
5.8
|
|
S McDonald
|
DET
|
62%
|
4.9
|
|
L Coles
|
NYJ
|
62%
|
5
|
|
P Crayton
|
DAL
|
62%
|
3.3
|
|
D Stallworth
|
NE
|
62%
|
2.9
|
|
J Jurevicius
|
CLE
|
62%
|
3.1
|
|
M Jenkins
|
ATL
|
62%
|
3.5
|
|
R White
|
ATL
|
61%
|
5.2
|
|
S Holmes
|
PIT
|
61%
|
4
|
|
R Willams
|
DET
|
61%
|
5.3
|
|
D Patten
|
NO
|
61%
|
3.6
|
|
K Walter
|
HOU
|
61%
|
4.1
|
|
E Wilford
|
JAX
|
61%
|
2.8
|
|
L Fitzgerald
|
ARI
|
60%
|
6.7
|
|
B Marshall
|
DEN
|
60%
|
6.4
|
|
H Ward
|
PIT
|
60%
|
5.5
|
|
D Northcutt
|
JAX
|
60%
|
2.9
|
|
R Williams
|
TEN
|
59%
|
3.7
|
|
J Jones
|
GB
|
59%
|
3.1
|
|
J Reed
|
BUF
|
59%
|
3.4
|
|
C Johnson
|
CIN
|
58%
|
5.8
|
|
S Smith
|
CAR
|
58%
|
5
|
|
J
|
TB
|
58%
|
4.9
|
|
D Branch
|
SEA
|
58%
|
4.5
|
|
S Rice
|
MIN
|
58%
|
2.6
|
|
J Urban
|
ARI
|
58%
|
2.2
|
|
T Owens
|
DAL
|
57%
|
5.4
|
|
A Toomer
|
NYG
|
57%
|
3.7
|
|
R Curry
|
OAK
|
57%
|
3.4
|
|
B Stokley
|
DEN
|
56%
|
3.1
|
|
K Curtis
|
PHI
|
55%
|
4.8
|
|
B Berrian
|
CHI
|
55%
|
4.4
|
|
R Brown
|
PHI
|
55%
|
3.8
|
|
C Henry
|
CIN
|
55%
|
2.6
|
|
I Bruce
|
STL
|
54%
|
3.9
|
|
M Clayton
|
BAL
|
54%
|
5
|
|
S Moss
|
WAS
|
53%
|
4.4
|
|
N Washington
|
PIT
|
53%
|
1.9
|
|
B Edwards
|
CLE
|
52%
|
5
|
|
N Burleson
|
SEA
|
52%
|
3.1
|
|
A
|
HOU
|
52%
|
2.4
|
|
J
|
DEN
|
52%
|
3.7
|
|
B Johnson
|
ARI
|
52%
|
2.8
|
|
R
|
MIN
|
52%
|
2.5
|
|
C Chambers
|
MIA/SD
|
51%
|
4.1
|
|
C Johnson
|
DET
|
51%
|
3.2
|
|
V
|
SD
|
51%
|
2.6
|
|
P Burress
|
NYG
|
50%
|
4.4
|
|
D Bowe
|
KC
|
50%
|
4.4
|
|
L Evans
|
BUF
|
49%
|
3.4
|
|
M Muhammad
|
CHI
|
49%
|
2.5
|
|
L Robinson
|
ATL
|
49%
|
2.5
|
|
A
|
SF
|
48%
|
3.1
|
|
M Booker
|
MIA
|
48%
|
3.3
|
|
D Carter
|
CAR
|
48%
|
2.3
|
|
D Darling
|
BAL
|
46%
|
1.6
|
|
D
|
SF
|
44%
|
3.1
|
|
J Porter
|
OAK
|
43%
|
3.1
|
|
D Williams
|
BAL
|
43%
|
2.2
|
— page —
This second list looks at the production of individual wide receivers by average receiving yards per game played last season. When it comes to fantasy value, wide receivers generally tend to be more consistent with their yardage totals than their scoring output. But I have included the percentage of games where the individual player went over 100 yards, the percentage of games played with a touchdown reception and how many multi-touchdown games they had on the season.
|
|
|
Avg Yds
|
100 +
|
TD Rcpt%
|
Multiple
|
|
Players
|
Team
|
Per Gm
|
Yd Gm
|
Gm Plyd
|
TD Gms
|
|
A Johnson
|
HOU
|
94.5
|
44%
|
78%
|
1
|
|
R
|
IND
|
94.3
|
38%
|
56%
|
1
|
|
L Fitzgerald
|
ARI
|
94.1
|
27%
|
47%
|
3
|
|
R Moss
|
NE
|
93.3
|
56%
|
81%
|
8
|
|
T Owens
|
DAL
|
90.3
|
40%
|
67%
|
3
|
|
C Johnson
|
CIN
|
90
|
31%
|
25%
|
3
|
|
B Marshall
|
DEN
|
82.8
|
25%
|
38%
|
1
|
|
B Edwards
|
CLE
|
80.5
|
25%
|
69%
|
4
|
|
J Cotchery
|
NYJ
|
75.2
|
27%
|
13%
|
|
|
M Colston
|
NO
|
75.1
|
25%
|
44%
|
3
|
|
R White
|
ATL
|
75.1
|
31%
|
38%
|
|
|
T Holt
|
STL
|
74.3
|
19%
|
44%
|
|
|
W Welker
|
NE
|
73.4
|
25%
|
38%
|
2
|
|
S Holmes
|
PIT
|
72.4
|
23%
|
46%
|
2
|
|
B Engram
|
SEA
|
71.6
|
13%
|
38%
|
|
|
TJ Houshmandzadeh
|
CIN
|
71.4
|
19%
|
63%
|
2
|
|
A Boldin
|
ARI
|
71
|
17%
|
50%
|
3
|
|
G
|
GB
|
70.7
|
15%
|
77%
|
2
|
|
D Driver
|
GB
|
69.8
|
13%
|
13%
|
|
|
R Williams
|
DET
|
69.6
|
17%
|
33%
|
1
|
|
K Curtis
|
PHI
|
69.3
|
19%
|
19%
|
1
|
|
D Mason
|
BAL
|
67.9
|
|
31%
|
|
|
J
|
TB
|
67.6
|
20%
|
33%
|
1
|
|
S Smith
|
CAR
|
66.8
|
27%
|
33%
|
1
|
|
P Burress
|
NYG
|
64
|
19%
|
56%
|
2
|
|
DJ Hackett
|
SEA
|
64
|
33%
|
50%
|
|
|
D Bowe
|
KC
|
62.1
|
13%
|
31%
|
|
|
C Chambers
|
MIA/SD
|
60.6
|
13%
|
25%
|
|
|
D Branch
|
SEA
|
60
|
18%
|
36%
|
|
|
B Berrian
|
CHI
|
59.2
|
6%
|
31%
|
|
|
S McDonald
|
DET
|
58.9
|
|
38%
|
|
|
L Coles
|
NYJ
|
58.7
|
9%
|
36%
|
2
|
|
S Moss
|
WAS
|
57.7
|
14%
|
21%
|
|
|
H Ward
|
PIT
|
56.6
|
|
38%
|
2
|
|
L Evans
|
BUF
|
53
|
13%
|
25%
|
1
|
|
D Patten
|
NO
|
52.8
|
20%
|
20%
|
|
|
I Bruce
|
STL
|
52.3
|
7%
|
29%
|
|
|
C Johnson
|
DET
|
50.4
|
7%
|
27%
|
|
|
K Walter
|
HOU
|
50
|
6%
|
25%
|
|
|
B Stokley
|
DEN
|
48.8
|
|
46%
|
|
|
R Brown
|
PHI
|
48.7
|
6%
|
19%
|
|
|
A Randle El
|
WAS
|
48.5
|
13%
|
7%
|
|
|
I Hilliard
|
TB
|
48.1
|
7%
|
7%
|
|
|
A Gonzalez
|
IND
|
48
|
8%
|
17%
|
|
|
R Williams
|
TEN
|
47.9
|
7%
|
20%
|
1
|
|
A Toomer
|
NYG
|
47.5
|
|
19%
|
|
|
J Gage
|
TEN
|
46.8
|
6%
|
6%
|
|
|
P Crayton
|
DAL
|
46.4
|
7%
|
33%
|
2
|
|
J Jones
|
GB
|
45
|
7%
|
13%
|
|
|
R Curry
|
OAK
|
44.8
|
6%
|
31%
|
|
|
J Porter
|
OAK
|
44
|
|
31%
|
1
|
|
D Stallworth
|
NE
|
43.5
|
6%
|
19%
|
|
|
N Burleson
|
SEA
|
43.3
|
6%
|
50%
|
1
|
|
C Henry
|
CIN
|
42.8
|
|
25%
|
|
|
R Williams
|
JAX
|
41.9
|
7%
|
67%
|
|
|
A
|
HOU
|
41.6
|
7%
|
21%
|
|
|
M Furrey
|
DET
|
41.5
|
|
6%
|
|
|
J
|
DEN
|
41
|
29%
|
|
|
|
B Wade
|
MIN
|
40.8
|
|
13%
|
1
|
|
D Northcutt
|
JAX
|
40
|
|
33%
|
|
|
V
|
SD
|
38.9
|
|
19%
|
|
|
J Reed
|
BUF
|
38.5
|
|
|
|
|
J Jurevicius
|
CLE
|
38.3
|
|
13%
|
1
|
|
A
|
SF
|
37.5
|
|
31%
|
|
|
M Booker
|
MIA
|
37
|
|
7%
|
|
|
M Muhammad
|
CHI
|
35.6
|
|
19%
|
|
|
M Jenkins
|
ATL
|
35.4
|
|
20%
|
1
|
|
J Gaffney
|
NE
|
34.5
|
8%
|
38%
|
|
|
D
|
SF
|
33.1
|
|
13%
|
|
|
M Clayton
|
BAL
|
33.1
|
6%
|
|
|
|
S Rice
|
MIN
|
33
|
|
33%
|
|
|
J Urban
|
ARI
|
32.9
|
10%
|
20%
|
|
|
B Johnson
|
ARI
|
32.8
|
|
13%
|
|
|
E Wilford
|
JAX
|
32.3
|
|
13%
|
1
|
|
D Williams
|
BAL
|
32.2
|
|
|
|
|
D Carter
|
CAR
|
30.5
|
6%
|
19%
|
1
|
|
N Washington
|
PIT
|
30
|
|
20%
|
2
|
|
R
|
MIN
|
30
|
|
8%
|
|
|
D Darling
|
BAL
|
29.6
|
9%
|
27%
|
|
|
L Robinson
|
ATL
|
29.1
|
7%
|
7%
|
|
— page —
This third list takes a look at an individual’s production per reception in relation to a basic scoring system. It breaks down all these lists into one formidable chart to show which players were the most productive at producing fantasy points per reception. One could make an argument that it might be better served to break this down by targets rather than receptions. The reason I chose to break this down by receptions is that if a player had a lot of targets but a poor reception conversion percentage, they would be listed higher due to the number of targets rather than their actual production and the first list with the reception conversion percentage shows how effective a player was at taking advantage of their opportunities to begin with.
|
|
|
Fantasy
|
|
Player
|
Team
|
Pts Pr Rcpt
|
|
R Williams
|
JAX
|
3.21
|
|
G
|
GB
|
3.09
|
|
R Moss
|
NE
|
2.93
|
|
B Edwards
|
CLE
|
2.8
|
|
D Darling
|
BAL
|
2.78
|
|
T Owens
|
DAL
|
2.78
|
|
S Holmes
|
PIT
|
2.73
|
|
N Washington
|
PIT
|
2.59
|
|
P Burress
|
NYG
|
2.49
|
|
N Burleson
|
SEA
|
2.46
|
|
J Porter
|
OAK
|
2.41
|
|
J
|
TB
|
2.4
|
|
B Stokley
|
DEN
|
2.33
|
|
A
|
HOU
|
2.3
|
|
M Jones
|
JAX
|
2.3
|
|
P Crayton
|
DAL
|
2.22
|
|
A Johnson
|
HOU
|
2.22
|
|
C Henry
|
CIN
|
2.19
|
|
L Evans
|
BUF
|
2.07
|
|
J Gaffney
|
NE
|
2.06
|
|
C Johnson
|
CIN
|
2.06
|
|
C Johnson
|
DET
|
2.06
|
|
A Gonzalez
|
IND
|
2.03
|
|
S Rice
|
MIN
|
2.03
|
|
R
|
IND
|
2.03
|
|
J Urban
|
ARI
|
2
|
|
L Fitzgerald
|
ARI
|
1.99
|
|
A Boldin
|
ARI
|
1.96
|
|
V
|
SD
|
1.95
|
|
D Carter
|
CAR
|
1.92
|
|
K Curtis
|
PHI
|
1.91
|
|
D Northcutt
|
JAX
|
1.91
|
|
M Colston
|
NO
|
1.9
|
|
M Muhammad
|
CHI
|
1.88
|
|
D Stallworth
|
NE
|
1.89
|
|
R White
|
ATL
|
1.88
|
|
D Bowe
|
KC
|
1.84
|
|
D Branch
|
SEA
|
1.84
|
|
C Chambers
|
|
1.83
|
|
L Coles
|
NYJ
|
1.82
|
|
A
|
SF
|
1.8
|
|
D Patten
|
NO
|
1.8
|
|
R Williams
|
DET
|
1.79
|
|
B Berrian
|
CHI
|
1.77
|
|
I Bruce
|
STL
|
1.76
|
|
DJ Hackett
|
SEA
|
1.75
|
|
R Curry
|
OAK
|
1.73
|
|
R Williams
|
TEN
|
1.73
|
|
T Holt
|
STL
|
1.72
|
|
B Marshall
|
DEN
|
1.71
|
|
J Jones
|
GB
|
1.68
|
|
D Bennett
|
STL
|
1.67
|
|
R Brown
|
PHI
|
1.67
|
|
TJ Houshmandzadeh
|
CIN
|
1.66
|
|
S McDonald
|
DET
|
1.65
|
|
S Smith
|
CAR
|
1.63
|
|
S Moss
|
WAS
|
1.61
|
|
B Engram
|
SEA
|
1.6
|
|
K Walter
|
HOU
|
1.6
|
|
H Ward
|
PIT
|
1.6
|
|
J Gage
|
TEN
|
1.58
|
|
J Jurevicius
|
CLE
|
1.58
|
|
T Ginn Jr
|
MIA
|
1.59
|
|
A Toomer
|
NYG
|
1.59
|
|
B Wade
|
MIN
|
1.54
|
|
A Randle El
|
WAS
|
1.53
|
|
E Wilford
|
JAX
|
1.53
|
|
J Cotchery
|
NYJ
|
1.51
|
|
W Welker
|
NE
|
1.47
|
|
D
|
SF
|
1.46
|
|
M Jenkins
|
ATL
|
1.45
|
|
D Williams
|
BAL
|
1.45
|
|
B Johnson
|
ARI
|
1.42
|
|
D Driver
|
GB
|
1.41
|
|
R
|
MIN
|
1.41
|
|
B Smith
|
NYJ
|
1.38
|
|
D Mason
|
BAL
|
1.34
|
|
L Robinson
|
ATL
|
1.32
|
|
I Hilliard
|
TB
|
1.26
|
|
M Booker
|
MIA
|
1.22
|
|
M Furrey
|
DET
|
1.18
|
|
J Reed
|
BUF
|
1.12
|
|
M Clayton
|
BAL
|
1.1
|
— page —
So looking at this list, the first thing you see is
Reggie Williams
listed in the first slot. He may have produced the most fantasy points per reception but his opportunities were limited and everyone knows that
Randy Moss
was the top scoring wide receiver last year. While this list shows who was the most productive per reception, the biggest factor becomes targets as well as reception conversion percentage. By taking the three most important factors – the fantasy points per reception list, the average targets per game list and reception conversion list – and giving each of them a weight value, we can come up with one list that puts the three most important factors into one measurement. Remember that this list is based off last year and is not a projection for this year. It is more of a tool for quick estimates when making determinations based on the potential increase or decrease a player may receive in targets this year and comparing a player’s potential value compared to their average draft position.
|
Player
|
Team
|
Weight
|
|
R Moss
|
NE
|
9.21
|
|
A Johnson
|
HOU
|
8.16
|
|
L Fitzgerald
|
ARI
|
8.08
|
|
TJ Houshmandzadeh
|
CIN
|
8.03
|
|
R
|
IND
|
7.97
|
|
W Welker
|
NE
|
7.88
|
|
T Owens
|
DAL
|
7.82
|
|
B Marshall
|
DEN
|
7.74
|
|
M Colston
|
NO
|
7.71
|
|
A Boldin
|
ARI
|
7.65
|
|
C Johnson
|
CIN
|
7.64
|
|
B Edwards
|
CLE
|
7.61
|
|
D Mason
|
BAL
|
7.52
|
|
T Holt
|
STL
|
7.39
|
|
B Engram
|
SEA
|
7.37
|
|
S Smith
|
CAR
|
7.36
|
|
G
|
GB
|
7.24
|
|
DJ Hackett
|
SEA
|
7.18
|
|
H Ward
|
PIT
|
7.17
|
|
R White
|
ATL
|
7.17
|
|
J Cotchery
|
NYJ
|
7.1
|
|
D Driver
|
GB
|
7.04
|
|
P Burress
|
NYG
|
7.01
|
|
L Coles
|
NYJ
|
6.99
|
|
S Holmes
|
PIT
|
6.97
|
|
K Curtis
|
PHI
|
6.91
|
|
S McDonald
|
DET
|
6.86
|
|
D Branch
|
SEA
|
6.7
|
|
D Bowe
|
KC
|
6.66
|
|
J
|
TB
|
6.63
|
|
B Berrian
|
CHI
|
6.61
|
|
C Chambers
|
MIA/SD
|
6.49
|
|
S Moss
|
WAS
|
6.49
|
|
R Williams
|
JAX
|
6.48
|
|
J Urban
|
ARI
|
6.38
|
|
I Hilliard
|
TB
|
6.37
|
|
P Crayton
|
DAL
|
6.32
|
|
K Walter
|
HOU
|
6.32
|
|
I Bruce
|
STL
|
6.28
|
|
A Gonzalez
|
IND
|
6.28
|
|
N Burleson
|
SEA
|
6.2
|
|
M Jenkins
|
ATL
|
6.19
|
|
J Gaffney
|
NE
|
6.17
|
|
D Patten
|
NO
|
6.16
|
|
R Williams
|
TEN
|
6.16
|
|
R Brown
|
PHI
|
6.15
|
|
L Evans
|
BUF
|
6.13
|
|
B Stokley
|
DEN
|
6.09
|
|
M Furrey
|
DET
|
6.07
|
|
A Toomer
|
NYG
|
6.04
|
|
A Randle El
|
WAS
|
6.01
|
|
C Johnson
|
DET
|
6
|
|
R Curry
|
OAK
|
5.99
|
|
B Wade
|
MIN
|
5.96
|
|
J Porter
|
OAK
|
5.84
|
|
D Stallworth
|
NE
|
5.84
|
|
D Northcutt
|
JAX
|
5.83
|
|
J Jones
|
GB
|
5.82
|
|
J Jurevicius
|
CLE
|
5.8
|
|
A
|
SF
|
5.76
|
|
C Henry
|
CIN
|
5.71
|
|
S Rice
|
MIN
|
5.66
|
|
J Reed
|
BUF
|
5.65
|
|
J Gage
|
TEN
|
5.6
|
|
M Booker
|
MIA
|
5.58
|
|
E Wilford
|
JAX
|
5.58
|
|
A
|
HOU
|
5.56
|
|
D
|
SF
|
5.5
|
|
V
|
SD
|
5.47
|
|
N Washington
|
PIT
|
5.35
|
|
M Muhammad
|
CHI
|
5.33
|
|
M Jones
|
JAX
|
5.22
|
|
B Johnson
|
ARI
|
5.2
|
|
D Carter
|
CAR
|
5.16
|
|
R
|
MIN
|
5.1
|
|
D Bennett
|
STL
|
5.09
|
|
L Robinson
|
ATL
|
5.07
|
|
T Ginn Jr
|
MIA
|
5
|
|
D Darling
|
BAL
|
4.93
|
|
D Williams
|
BAL
|
4.84
|
|
B Smith
|
NYJ
|
4.77
|
